Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $563,598$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(4.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{703,915.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 125.6)}}\) (asimptote \(703,915.7\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,621$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(107 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,351.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 141.6)}}\) (asimptote \(28,351.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $135,777$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,347$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(887 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,173.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 67.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,173.0\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $59$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(9.41 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.9)}}\) (asimptote \(58.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $168$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,821$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(187 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,421.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 129.7)}}\) (asimptote \(7,421.3\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(5.39 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 88.3)}}\) (asimptote \(111.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,556$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,883$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(80.3 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,130.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 123.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,130.1\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $32$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(0.89 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 114.9)}}\) (asimptote \(38.3\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $723$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $95,666$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(5.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,318.4}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 96.7)}}\) (asimptote \(100,318.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,035$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(257 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,766.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 100.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,766.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,852$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,489$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(750 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,557.8}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 87.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,557.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $224$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(22.7 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{249.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 90.0)}}\) (asimptote \(249.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $902$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,555$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(290 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,399.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 88.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,399.1\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $157$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(12.8 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{154.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 76.5)}}\) (asimptote \(154.5\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $828$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $35,712$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{406,238.5}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 251.1)}}\) (asimptote \(406,238.5\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,312$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(233 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,446.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 82.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,446.4\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,480$ on 2020-08-10
